International consequences of a Greek – Turkish war. A way to avert it

by Dimitris Konstantakopoulos

In a previous article we examined the methods third forces may use to provoke a Greek – Turkish military conflict and we explained why such a conflict, if unchecked, has the potential of developing into a disaster for both countries.

We have many indications that there are indeed third forces trying to fuel the conflict, but it is difficult of course to have proofs. This is why we will follow the opposite method. We will try to investigate who will “profit from the crime”, that is by the main international consequences of a Greek-Turkish conflict. By analyzing what can be the results of a full Greek – Turkish war, we can get an idea of the probability international power centers are trying to provoke such a war from behind the scenes.  

Of course “war is the Father of everything” and the end – results maybe very different than the intentions. When the Americans organized the coup in Kiev, they were not waiting for the Russian army to land to Syria! Still policies leading to a war are based on pre-war perceptions of what may come as its result. And of course we must keep in mind that if somebody is profiting from a “crime”, that is not a proof he is working to commit it or he has committed it!

Five consequences of a major Greek-Turkish conflict

In case of a major Greek-Turkish war leading to the destruction of both countries, we can already discern five major consequences:

Erdogan’s regime may be overthrown and replaced by a more amenable, pro-western and pro-Israeli, probably authoritarian regime. The problem of the “independence” tendencies of Turkey will be resolved and Turkey will be very weakened for a very long period.

-Such a conflict will not be only a terrible blow to the Greek and Cypriot states, it will be  a terrible blow to the Greek nation itself complementing its historic defeats of 2010 and 2015. This is more important than a blow to the state, because governments and regimes may change, if nations and peoples survive.

Greeks are known for their unusual resistance capacities, from the time of the 1821 Revolution, a lightning in the European night of Holy Alliance to their resistance to the Axis between 1940 and 1945, by far the most combative and massive in all Europe (taking into account the magnitude and the population of the country). The definite neutralization of the Greek nation should be considered a historic triumph of imperial forces wishing to turn all Mediterranean into their “mare nostrum” and expel any Russian or independent European influence for good.

In Greece itself, a military defeat would put in doubt what still remains of something resembling a “parliamentarian democracy”, as for Cyprus it may well mean the end of this state.

Greeks and Greece remain in the consciousness of the world the most important symbol of Man’s struggle for Freedom. The words Freedom, Logos and Democracy were first formulated in the Greek language. The humiliation and ultimate destruction of this nation should be considered a huge ideological triumph for the emerging world totalitarian tendencies.

I understand that some readers may characterize all that as “conspiracy theory”. In that case they should offer an explanation of the fact that Germany, the EU and the IMF did not impose to Greece a harsh neoliberal “reform” program, something “normal” under the circumstances, but what we may call a “nation extinction program”, leading to a 27% loss of GDP, that is to a bigger percentage of GDP loss than German or French GDP losses during WWI. And also to explain why three years later the same forces have attacked and destroyed the banking system of a second state inhabited by a Greek majority, the Republic of Cyprus, by applying an unprecedented “bail-in” program, in reality a kind of financial blietzkrieg.

– Third, a war between Greece and Turkey will constitute a huge and probably mortal blow to the EU, already in deep crisis and not disposing of any tool to face a war situation. 

The writer of this article does not have any excessive sympathy for a half – totalitarian, German dominated and anti-social structure like the EU, ruled by an alliance of world financial oligarchy and German elites under NATO and US supervision, which has contributed to the destruction of Greece.

Still the most important question is not so much to destroy or not the EU (or to get one or more states out of it) but how to replace the existing European order with a better one, more social, ecological, democratic and independent.

Under the present circumstances and in the scenario we examine here we run the risk to see extremist forces in the US and some of their allies take advantage of the crisis to try to cut the EU into several, more amenable by the US, pieces, in order to impose their commercial goals to Europe and ensure the unhindered future world domination of the dollar, necessary to assure the financing of US economy

In case of a decomposition of the EU, Neocons may probably try to create a Mediterranean Union comprising South Europe and Northern Africa, not as a tool of cooperation of the various Mediterranean nations, but as a tool of control of them and of deterrence of any outside (Russian, Chinese, German) influence, for the US – Israel axis to have the exclusive  control of a Sea in the middle of three continents.

– Any major conflict in the wider Middle East will torpedo the Chinese project “One road, one belt”

– A Greek – Turkish war will be a huge blow to NATO and this is the main and by far the most serious obstacle to a war. But the idea of replacing NATO with other defense structures is floating in Trump’s milieu. If Washington will decide, at some point, that it has to exclude Ankara from the Alliance, then it has to create the possibility to do so, because now it is not possible institutionally and/or politically. But if we speak of a huge crisis leading to the decomposition of the EU, we can then think of NATO’s “recomposition” at least.  

From examining the possible consequences of a Greek – Turkish war we can conclude that this is a very radical measure which can be justified only in the eyes of the most radical and extremist forces of the dominant Empire. This is what makes it difficult but not impossible. The over-confidence of Ankara and the chaotic situation in Greek elites can lead to unpredictable situations.